Why Padres will win 2024 World Series

All signs pointed to a successful baseball team in San Diego last year. The San Diego Padres were second in team ERA, fifth in defensive runs saved above average, and above average in runs scored. Yet the club finished 82-80 and missed out on the playoffs.

The offseason was also a rollercoaster. In December, the club traded superstar outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees for right-handers Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez, starting pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and catcher Kyle Higashioka. In January, the team saw All-Star closer Josh Hader sign a record-breaking contract with the Houston Astros. Then, just a few weeks before the season started, the Padres traded for Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Dylan Cease.

Cease — who finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting in 2022 — gives the Padres another elite starting pitcher and puts the club right back in World Series contention. Here is why the San Diego Padres will win the 2024 World Series.

Elite quartet of starting pitchers

“Spahn, Sain, and two days of rain” is the classic saying popularized by fans of the Boston Braves during the late 1940s when the team possessed two of the best starting pitchers in baseball — Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain. The Braves rooters knew their best chance to win came with Spahn or Sain on the mound, thus they hoped for foul weather in between appearances by their aces to give them a chance to rest.

Padres fans might wish for similar atmospheric conditions in sunny San Diego this year when they see the club’s starting rotation. Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Dylan Cease, and Blake Snell form one of the best quartets of starting pitchers in Major League Baseball this season. After that, there are huge question marks.

Michael King — acquired from the Yankees in the Juan Soto trade — is the number-five starter but just 19 of his 116 appearances across six seasons have come as a starter. King had four starts of at least five innings, allowing a combined three earned runs while striking out 31 batters. He also finished with an ERA of 2.75 on the season with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. After King is unproven knuckleballer Matt Waldron. Waldron had an ERA of 4.35 across 41.1 innings pitched last year in his debut season in the majors. Johnny Brito, also acquired in the Soto deal, is another option.

This team will rely heavily on Darvish, Musgrove, Cease, and Snell — a dangerous strategy but one that is necessary if the club wants to make its first World Series appearance in a quarter of a century.

Bullpen steps up without Hader

Despite having one of baseball’s elite closers in Josh Hader, the Padres bullpen was one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. San Diego relievers had a combined WAR of -2.6 on the year, 22nd among all MLB teams. Tom Cosgrove was the only reliever aside from Hader with a sub-3.00 ERA and non-Hader pitchers were 3-28 in save opportunities for the Padres in 2023.

The team addressed its bullpen issues in the Soto trade, bringing in Michael King and Jhony Brito, though King will start the year in the rotation. Wandy Peralta also joined the club from New York in a separate free-agent deal. Peralta had a 2.82 ERA in three years with the Yankees. He signed a four-year, $16.5 million contract.

San Diego brought in Japanese reliever Yuki Matsui and Korean right-hander Woo-Suk Go. Matsui has 236 saves across 10 JPPL seasons while Go has 139 career saves but will start the season at Triple-A. With Robert Suarez now at closer, this new-look Padres bullpen could be the key to the club’s World Series push in 2024.